Heating Oil Households Face About 21% More This Winter. Gas and Propane Homes Should Pay Less.

The Energy Information Administration published its October Short-Term Energy Outlook and accompanying Winter Fuels Outlook on October 6, and the answer it gives is split by fuel rather than uniform. Households that heat mainly with natural gas or propane — about half of all US homes — are expected to spend less this winter than last. Households that heat with electricity are expected to spend slightly more. Households that heat with heating oil, about 3% of homes and concentrated in the Northeast, are expected to spend about 21% more.

The heating oil figure is smaller than the price move behind it. The EIA forecasts heating oil prices more than 30% above last winter, and says milder weather in the Northeast offsets part of that. The expenditure forecast is the product of price and volume, and in this case the volume assumption is pulling the other way.

The weather assumption

The EIA expects national winter temperatures to be about the same as last winter and about the same as the previous 10-winter average. It flags a strong El Niño as something that could change that outcome. Heating expenditure forecasts are unusually sensitive to this input: a colder-than-assumed winter raises consumption at the same time as it tends to raise prices.

Relatively high natural gas inventories entering the winter season provide a cushion for heating demand.

That cushion is quantified in the outlook itself. Natural gas inventories are forecast at about 3,850 billion cubic feet at the end of October, roughly 2% above the five-year average, with the heating season beginning November 1. The Henry Hub spot price is forecast to average about $3.48 per million British thermal units in 2026 and $3.16 in 2027.

The crude oil forecast behind it

• Brent crude: $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; about $96 a barrel averaged over 2026; about $84 a barrel in 2027
• West Texas Intermediate: about $88 a barrel in 2026; about $80 a barrel in 2027
• US crude oil production: about 13.9 million barrels a day in 2026, rising to about 14.3 million in 2027
• Henry Hub natural gas: about $3.48 per MMBtu in 2026, $3.16 in 2027

The forecast is dated October 6, and the EIA says model inputs were finalised on October 1. So the $105 fourth-quarter Brent figure is a forecast made at the start of the quarter, not a reading of where the market has traded since.

Electricity is the other direction

Residential electricity prices are forecast to rise about 5.3% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027. In cents per kilowatt hour, the average residential price moves from about 17.3 in 2025 to about 18.2 in 2026 and about 18.7 in 2027. That is why electrically heated homes are the one category the EIA expects to spend more this winter even without a colder season.