Wallcrest Economics Desk
Central banks, inflation, employment and the policy decisions that set the cost of money.
A back-of-the-envelope formula built from the unemployment rate has become one of the most closely watched real-time recession indicators in economics.
Wallcrest Economy Desk · 1m ago · 4 min read
Share repurchases return cash to shareholders and can lift per-share metrics, but a federal excise tax now applies to many large corporate buybacks.
1m ago · 4 min
A year ago the same week produced 233,000 claims. The Fed's statement two days later said job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little.
1m ago · 2 min
CBO's Monthly Budget Review, published September 9, puts October-August receipts at $4,845 billion and outlays at $6,812 billion. Two shifts in payment dates flatter the year-on-year comparison.
1m ago · 3 min
The consumer price index rose 0.4% in August. Gasoline alone rose 3.9% in the month and accounted for more than a third of the increase.
1m ago · 2 min
The Governing Council lifted all three key rates by a quarter point on 10 September. The deposit facility rate is now 2.50%, and staff projections do not bring inflation back to 2% inside the forecast horizon.
1m ago · 3 min
A plain-language guide to the process the Federal Reserve uses to reduce its bond holdings, and why it matters for interest rates, bank reserves, and markets.
1m ago · 4 min
NFIB's index gave back most of July's jump. A net negative 9% of owners reported higher sales, 62% reported supply chain disruptions, and a net 28% still plan to raise prices.
1m ago · 2 min
These government bonds adjust their principal with inflation, but the tax treatment and mechanics trip up many first-time buyers.
1m ago · 4 min
The ISM Services PMI rose to 55.4% from 54.1% in July, with business activity and new orders at multiyear highs. The employment index stayed below 50 at 47.8%, and the prices index climbed 2.3 points to 72.6%.
1m ago · 3 min
A plain-English guide to RMD ages, calculations, and penalties after the SECURE 2.0 Act changed the rules.
1m ago · 4 min
The unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Restaurants and local government schools accounted for most of the hiring. ADP's private-payroll count for the same month was 38,000.
1m ago · 3 min
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell a point to 54.6%. New orders, backlogs and imports each dropped about three points. Prices paid stayed at exactly 71.1% for a second month.
1m ago · 3 min
The Dallas Fed's Texas survey jumped to its strongest reading in months on Monday. Three days earlier the Chicago Business Barometer fell more than ten points into contraction. The prices lines are where they agree.
1m ago · 3 min
Imports rose $11.4 billion in a single month while exports fell $6.0 billion. Warehouses kept filling at the same time.
1m ago · 2 min
After-tax income rose 0.5% on the month and prices rose 0.2%, yet inflation-adjusted spending barely moved. The saving rate was 3.0%.
1m ago · 2 min
The Conference Board's headline index slipped to 89.4 in August. Underneath it, the Present Situation Index jumped 6.8 points while the Expectations Index fell 5.8.
1m ago · 2 min
The University of Michigan's preliminary August reading dropped from 55.2 to 51.0, below forecasts. Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up to 4.3%.
1m ago · 2 min
S&P Global's flash composite output index rose to 56.0 from 54.5. Services did almost all of it. Jobless claims fell to 206,000. Both numbers are surveys, not the official statistics they anticipate.
1m ago · 4 min
The Committee held its target range at 3.50%-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, with all three dissenters preferring an increase. The minutes, released August 19, show a committee split over how much of the inflation overshoot is temporary.
1m ago · 3 min
A policy rate is not imposed on lenders. It is engineered through the market for reserves, and it transmits unevenly.
1m ago · 7 min
Tariffs are collected at the border from importers, not foreign governments, and the cost typically flows through supply chains to businesses and consumers.
1m ago · 4 min
I bonds combine a fixed rate for life with an inflation-linked rate that changes every six months, and the math behind that reset trips up many holders.
1m ago · 4 min
Employment data arrives as several surveys measuring different things. The headline number is the least stable of them.
1m ago · 6 min
A plain-English guide to what the CPI measures, how it's built, and why the Federal Reserve watches a different inflation gauge for policy decisions.
1m ago · 3 min
Gross domestic product counts market production in a period. Treating it as a measure of welfare imports errors it was never designed to avoid.
Yesterday · 6 min
CPI is a basket, a weighting and a method. Each choice changes the number that lands on the front page.
2d ago · 7 min
The FOMC does not decree a rate. It sets a target range and uses administered rates to steer the market into it.
6d ago · 8 min
