ECB expected to hold deposit rate at 2.50% this week, with a December hike in view
Euro-area inflation rose to 3.7% in September, but economists say energy spillovers into underlying prices remain muted.
The short answer
- The ECB announces its decision on Thursday, October 29; the deposit rate is 2.50%.
- A Reuters poll found most economists expect a hold now and a 25 bp hike in December.
- October is a non-projection meeting — no new staff forecasts.
The European Central Bank's Governing Council announces its next monetary policy decision on Thursday, October 29. The deposit facility rate stands at 2.50% after two quarter-point increases this year.
A Reuters poll published on October 8 found the ECB is expected to hold its deposit rate at 2.50% this month but raise it by 25 basis points in December, as inflation runs nearly double the 2% target. Most economists polled had until recently thought the ECB was done.
An ECB preview published via FXStreet on October 20 also expects rates to stay unchanged, noting that while euro-area inflation rose to 3.7% year-on-year in September, the spillovers from energy costs to underlying inflation remain very muted. That preview now expects a final 25 bp hike in December to a peak deposit rate of 2.75%.
The ECB publishes its decisions in a press release on the day of the meeting, followed by the President's press conference.
What is still unclear
- Whether the Governing Council signals a December move explicitly or keeps its meeting-by-meeting stance.
Sources
- Monetary policy decisions — European Central Bank
- ECB to hike rates again in December: Reuters poll — Reuters via Yahoo Finance
- ECB Preview: October pause — FXStreet
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- Published:
- 27 Oct 2026, 07:56 UTC
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- 27 Oct 2026, 07:56 UTC
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