New-Home Sales Fell 10.5% in July. The Confidence Interval Is Plus or Minus 14%.
The Census Bureau put July sales at a 607,000 annual rate and said the drop is not statistically significant. The number that is not ambiguous is inventory: 9.6 months of supply.
The short answer
- New single-family home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 in July, down 10.5% from June's 678,000 and 6.3% below July 2025, in the Census Bureau and HUD release of August 25.
- Neither change clears the statistical bar: the 90% confidence intervals are plus or minus 14.0% for the month and plus or minus 19.6% for the year.
- There were 488,000 new homes for sale at the end of July, equal to 9.6 months of supply at the July sales rate, up from 8.5 months in June and 9.2 a year earlier.
- The median sales price was $393,800, down 0.9% from a year earlier, while the average price was $508,800, up 5.4%.
The headline from the July new residential sales report is a 10.5% monthly fall. The report itself says that fall cannot be distinguished from no change at all. Both statements are in the same release, and the second one is the more useful place to start.
The headline and the asterisk
New-home sales are estimated from a sample, not a census of transactions, so every figure carries a sampling error. The Census Bureau publishes it. July sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000, against 678,000 in June — a 10.5% decline with a 90% confidence interval of plus or minus 14.0%. Because the interval spans zero, the Bureau's standard formulation applies: the change is not statistically significant. The same is true of the 6.3% year-over-year decline from July 2025's 648,000, where the interval is plus or minus 19.6%.
That does not mean nothing happened. It means this single month, on its own, cannot tell you the direction.
The inventory figure carries less noise
At the end of July there were 488,000 new homes for sale, up from 479,000 in June. At the July selling rate that is 9.6 months of supply, against 8.5 months in June and 9.2 months a year earlier. Months of supply is a ratio of two estimates, so it inherits their error, but the stock of unsold homes moves more slowly and less erratically than the monthly sales rate.
Two price series moving in opposite directions
- Median sales price: $393,800, down 2.3% from June and 0.9% from July 2025 — the lowest median since July 2021
- Average sales price: $508,800, up 4.1% from June and 5.4% from July 2025
A falling median with a rising average is a statement about mix, not about any individual house getting cheaper. Homes priced under $400,000 accounted for 53% of July sales, against 50% a year earlier. The $400,000 to $1 million band shrank from 46% to 42%. Homes above $1 million rose from 3% to 5%. Both tails of the distribution grew at the expense of the middle: more sales below the median pull the median down, while a thicker top end pulls the average up.
By region
- South: 383,000 annual rate
- West: 138,000
- Northeast: 43,000
- Midwest: 43,000
Builders can still move homes. They're increasingly doing it with rate buydowns, incentives and price cuts.
Why it matters
New-home sales are one of the noisiest federal housing series, and they are also one of the most quoted. The July report is a clean illustration of why the two facts belong together: the eye-catching number is the one the statisticians decline to stand behind, and the durable one — nearly ten months of unsold inventory — arrives without a headline.
Sources
- Monthly New Residential Sales, July 2026 (PDF) — U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
- New home demand swoons even as sales prices hit a 5-year low — HousingWire
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